مطالعات اسلامی در علوم انسانی

مطالعات اسلامی در علوم انسانی

آینده‌پژوهی تمدن نوین اسلامی: هم‌افزایی عدالت و مقاومت در شرایط عدم قطعیت

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده
دانشگاه جامع امام حسین(ع)
10.22067/jiish.2026.97571.1019
چکیده
ضمن تشریح چالش‌های سلطه غربی و شناسایی خلأهای روش‌شناختی مطالعات موجود که عمدتاً توصیفی، تک‌بعدی و فاقد رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی ترکیبی بودند، ضرورت بررسی تعامل پیچیده عدالت و مقاومت در شرایط عدم قطعیت برجسته گردید. این پژوهش کیفی و آینده‌نگرانه است که با بهره‌گیری از فراترکیب ۴۰ منبع علمی، بیانیه گام دوم و بیانات رهبری و استخراج ۵۰ ردیف تم کلیدی، از چهار روش سه افق، تحلیل لایه‌ای علّی (CLA)، مثلث آینده‌پژوهی و عدم قطعیت بحرانی استفاده شده است. یافته­های به‌دست‌آمده از این پژوهش نشان داد که در افق اول، تمدن اسلامی با فرسودگی ساختاری و مقاومت دفاعی مواجه است، حال آنکه افق سوم، تمدنی عادلانه و مقاوم را تصویر می‌کند؛ تحلیل لایه‌ای علّی، ریشه‌های تحول را از سطح لیتانی تا اسطوره‌های عاشورایی و مدینه فاضله بازکاوی کرد و مثلث آینده‌پژوهی گذار را مستلزم بازتعریف وزن گذشته، تبدیل فشار حال به فرصت و هم‌راستایی با کشش آینده دانست. عدم قطعیت بحرانی چهار سناریوی رقیب از «تمدن شکوفا» تا «رکود تمدنی» تولید و راهبرد‌های مقاومی چون تربیت نسل مقاوم، نهادسازی جهادی، حفظ گفتمان استکبارستیزی و ائتلاف‌سازی همسایگی شناسایی شد. به‌طور کلی، نتایج تأکید دارد آینده تمدن اسلامی مشروط به هم‌آهنگی عدالت، مقاومت و هوش راهبردی در فضای عدم قطعیت است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Futures Studies of the New Islamic Civilization: Synergy of Justice and Resistance in Conditions of Uncertainty

نویسنده English

maryam ahmadpoor
Imam Hossein University
چکیده English

Introduction
The contemporary world is characterized by the dominance of Western modernity, manifested through materialism, extreme individualism, structural economic and political dependencies, and pervasive social and cultural inequalities that cast shadows over Islamic societies. Against this backdrop, the realization of the New Islamic Civilization emerges not merely as an ideological aspiration but as an unavoidable necessity for preserving cultural identity, ensuring social cohesion, maintaining national dignity, and achieving balanced and sustainable progress for Muslim communities. This civilization, rooted in pure Quranic teachings, the practical conduct of the infallible Imams (peace be upon them), the thoughts of Imam Khomeini (may his soul rest in peace), and the statements of the Supreme Leader, requires active and intelligent confrontation with numerous challenges. These include structural erosion in governance systems, geographical and operational limitations of resistance, potential inefficiencies in resistance economy, geopolitical insecurities, economic and cultural discrimination, and hegemony-oriented global structures that prevent the full blossoming of the Islamic Ummah's capacities. Two foundational concepts play pivotal and determinant roles in the civilizational formation process: justice—as a key instrument for removing inequalities, establishing ethical, economic, and social balance, guaranteeing sustainable security, and ensuring human dignity—and resistance—as an ideological, practical, and comprehensive action against external aggressions, internal deviations, and hegemonic pressures. The central question arises whether these two concepts, considered separately or merely reactively, are sufficient, or whether they require mutual and dynamic synergy to become the primary civilizational forces. Existing literature in the field of New Islamic Civilization, though rich in general descriptions of civilizational indicators such as faith, rationality, social justice, and resistance economy, often remains limited to one-dimensional or descriptive analyses, paying insufficient attention to the complex, synergistic, and dynamic interactions between justice and resistance under conditions of contemporary uncertainty and complexity.
 
Methodology
This qualitative research employs a futures studies approach, utilizing meta-synthesis methodology for data collection and analysis. The primary data were gathered from 40 authoritative scholarly sources, the Second Phase Statement of the Islamic Revolution (2019), and speeches of the Supreme Leader. From these materials, 50 thematic rows regarding the roles and key themes of justice and resistance in the New Islamic Civilization were extracted, organized into three main categories: resistance, justice, and their synergy. This comprehensive integrated table formed the main data foundation for the research. For futures studies analysis, four systematic and complementary methods were employed: the Three Horizons approach for mapping current conditions, preferred future, and transition pathways; the Futures Triangle for examining the interaction of the weight of the past, pressure of the present, and pull of the future; Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) for exploring four civilizational layers—litany/events, systemic/structural, worldview/discourse, and myth/metaphor; and Critical Uncertainty for identifying fateful uncertainties, constructing 2×2 matrices, developing four scenarios, and finally extracting robust strategies. Data analysis was conducted qualitatively and interpretively, utilizing visual tools such as matrices and triangles for better structural organization of findings.
 
Findings
The meta-synthesis findings reveal that resistance in the New Islamic Civilization is not merely a temporary reaction or military action but possesses roots in Tawhid-based foundations, the historical experience of Ashura, and the culture of sacrifice and martyrdom. It functions as an active mechanism for "preservation, survival, and civilizational dynamism" through producing social capital, strengthening Ummah cohesion, educating courageous and self-confident generations, shaping anti-hegemonic discourse, and creating regional and international power balance. Conversely, justice was identified as the ultimate goal and soul of the New Islamic Civilization, manifesting across educational, social, governance, and cultural dimensions through fighting corruption, reducing class gaps, ensuring human dignity, empowering youth, and institutionalizing ethical values. The Three Horizons analysis demonstrated that in Horizon 1, Islamic civilization faces structural erosion and reduced resistance to predominantly defensive functions, while Horizon 3 depicts a civilization rooted in global justice, comprehensive resistance, and Tawhid-based belief, emerging as a sustainable alternative to the Western liberal order. Causal Layered Analysis traced the roots of transformation from litany-level challenges (Western domination, corruption, class inequality) to deep civilizational myths (Ashura as a matrix of sacrifice and standing against oppression, the Virtuous City as metaphor for global justice, and the reappearance as the end of oppression's history). The Futures Triangle illustrated that transition from Horizon 1 to 3 requires redefining the weight of the past (Ashura-based roots, wilayat-orientation, revolutionary faith), converting present pressures (geopolitical crises and H2+ innovations) into opportunities, and aligning with the pull of the future. The Critical Uncertainty approach generated four competing scenarios: (1) Flourishing Civilization—where the resistance axis achieves global power balance and justice is fully realized; (2) Victorious Resistance but Failed Justice—where external hegemony is broken but internal inequality persists; (3) Strong Domestic Justice but Limited Resistance—where internal progress occurs without global influence; and (4) Civilizational Stagnation—where both justice and resistance fail. Robust strategies effective across all scenarios were identified: cultivating a resilient generation with courage, zeal, and revolutionary spirit; maintaining anti-hegemonic discourse and wilayat-orientation; sustained emphasis on sacrifice, martyrdom culture, and jihadi management; jihadi institution-building and youth empowerment; and simultaneous pursuit of neighborhood-based alliance-building and resistance economy.
 
Discussion and Conclusion
This research, through the integrated application of four futures studies approaches combined with revolutionary indigenous sources, presents a deep, dynamic, and future-oriented framework for understanding the trajectory of the New Islamic Civilization. The findings demonstrate that justice and resistance function not as separate or merely reactive concepts, but as synergistic, civilizational, and mutually reinforcing forces at the heart of civilizational transformation. The future of Islamic civilization is contingent not on deterministic prediction but on the alignment of justice, resistance, and strategic intelligence within conditions of uncertainty. The analysis reveals that true civilizational transformation requires not merely behavioral and structural changes but also the reproduction of discourses and reinterpretation of collective myths. The Critical Uncertainty approach successfully moved thinking away from linear future prediction toward preparation for multiple futures, showing that victory and failure remain simultaneously realistic possibilities. The focus on unchangeable normative elements derived from Quranic teachings and collective self-confidence ("We Can") proved the most effective mechanism for addressing future uncertainties.
The robust strategies identified—particularly cultivating a resilient generation as the central core—provide sustainable foundations for maintaining fundamental ideals, preserving achievements in victory conditions, correcting internal structural challenges, and reviving collective motivation in stagnation conditions. These findings carry extensive implications for civilizational policymaking, youth-centered planning, geopolitical alliance-building, and redefining resistance economy. Future research may expand this framework's depth and application through regional-level implementation or comparison with competing civilizations.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Ashura myths: Resilient generation: Resistance strategies: Scenario: Strategic intelligence
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